The present invention relates to power generation, distribution, and control networks, and more particularly to forecasting of electricity demand using these networks.
This section is intended to provide a background or context to the invention disclosed below. The description herein may include concepts that could be pursued, but are not necessarily ones that have been previously conceived, implemented or described. Therefore, unless otherwise explicitly indicated herein, what is described in this section is not prior art to the description in this application and is not admitted to be prior art by inclusion in this section.
Demand forecasting has always been central to electricity generation, distribution and control. There are recent developments associated with the so-called “Smart Grid”, however, that have considerably increased the stakes for demand forecasting.
For instance, smart meters are being installed in many locations. These smart meters can provide residential electricity usage data that is collected in, e.g., 5-15 minute intervals. It is unclear how this fine-grained and disaggregated usage data (that is, from single premises) can be exploited in real time.
As another example, integration of renewable sources of energy (such as solar panels or wind turbines) has been rapidly expanding. There is currently increased volatility due to the impact of renewable energy and distributed generation. One issue is how this volatility be accounted for in the intra-day forecasts.
Another development of concern is demand substitutability. In particular, residential usage involves a daily demand cycle with simultaneity and correlation effects. How can these effects be included in a time-series based forecasting system? Some possible forecasting systems are outlined in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/912,181, filed on Jun. 6, 2013, published as U.S. Publication No. 2014/0365022 and U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/918,312, filed on Jun. 14, 2013, published as U.S. Publication No. 2014/0365024, both of which are entitled “Managing Time-Substitutable Electricity Usage using Dynamic Controls”.
Transactive controls are an additional recent development in the power grid. Two-way communication of transactive signals (e.g., sequences of forecasted demand and forecasted price) are used in some systems. One issue is how the forecast values be used to improve demand response and enhance grid stability.
An additional recent development concerns feedback to consumers. For example, consumers can now be informed in near real time of their usage patterns relative to a peer group. An issue with this is how this feedback can be structured so as to improve the grid's overall efficiency and reliability.